Friendlies Form Guide: Who's Hot, Who's Falling Apart

The dirty secret of pre-tournament form: it lies. Spain went into Qatar 2022 with the friendliest of friendly draws against Jordan and got bounced by Morocco a fortnight later. Argentina lost their final tune-up against Saudi Arabia look-alike conditions, then went on to lift the trophy. The international windows in March and the May–June stretch are not a real preview. They are a vibe check.

Still — vibes matter. Managers learn things about their squads in friendlies they cannot learn anywhere else, because the next time these 26 players assemble it will be a knockout-stage match in an unfamiliar city in 35°C heat. Confidence and rhythm are not the whole story. They are part of it. Below is the form picture across the March and May 2026 international windows, with last-5 results, goals for/against, and an approximate expected-goal differential rounded to one decimal per FBref's friendly logs.

Caveats first. Some of the playoff teams (BIH, CZE, SWE, TUR, COD, IRQ) played qualifying matches inside this window that we have folded into the form table as competitive results. A few teams (notably Curaçao, Haiti and Cape Verde) have played fewer than five matches in the window and the last5 series should be read as "what they have played". xG estimates carry larger uncertainty for non-televised friendlies; treat the data as directional, not surgical.

Six storylines from the form table

1. Spain are the team to fear, by every metric

Spain top the xG-diff table at +7.4 across five matches. That number is a function of Lamine Yamal, Pedri (when fit) and Nico Williams operating at near-club levels in international shirts, plus a quiet defensive solidity that does not get the headlines it deserves. Twelve goals in five, three conceded. The only blemish was a draw in their March international.

The next two FIFA rankings updates will roll Spain into the World Cup as the unambiguous No. 1 — and the form table agrees.

2. Argentina look exactly like the 2022 champions

A +6.1 xG diff, ten goals in five, three conceded. Lionel Scaloni has resisted any urge to "evolve" the squad too aggressively. The result is a side that knows itself: a high-pressing front three behind Lautaro Martínez, Messi in a free role, Rodrigo De Paul still doing the dirty work in midfield. The questions are about legs in extra time in 35°C Houston, not about whether the team is ready.

3. France's form looks reassuring — but the depth picture is mixed

France: +5.8 xG diff, 11 GF, 4 GA. On paper, Deschamps has the side firing. The harder read is what Camavinga's omission (knee) and Kolo Muani's exclusion do to the depth chart. Deschamps's first-XI scores well in friendlies; if the legs that come on at minute 70 are a step down from Qatar 2022, the form table will overstate the team's tournament ceiling.

4. Portugal are the quiet leader nobody is picking

Portugal +5.2 xG diff, 10 goals scored. Roberto Martínez's side has won four of five with the only draw against a defensively organised opponent. The structural question — whether Cristiano Ronaldo's role as captain limits the pressing intensity in knockout games — remains. But the friendlies form is in the top four globally, and Portugal's group draw (with Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo) gives them an easy launchpad.

5. Scotland and Ghana are alarming

Both teams sit at the bottom of the xG-diff column with negative differentials (Scotland −1.4, Ghana −1.2) and only one win each in the last five. Scotland's group — Brazil, Morocco, Haiti — is brutal. Steve Clarke needs the May warm-ups to find a defensive shape that does not concede multiple goals per match. Ghana under Otto Addo has the same problem with a different cause: a generational squad refresh is happening at the wrong moment.

6. The United States are in the danger zone

Pochettino's USA — −0.4 xG diff, only one win in the last five, two losses. The home crowd will help. The group (Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye) is not catastrophic. But there is no question Pochettino's first five months in charge have produced inconsistent rhythm. The host advantage in 2026 is not what 2002 South Korea got from a deep co-host run, and the United States's warm-up form is the worst of any host nation in a generation.

The teams between the headlines

Morocco (+3.4) are right where they need to be: low-event, low-concede, four wins in five. Norway (+2.2) — Erling Haaland's first World Cup — score volumes that no other tier-B team can match. Iran (+2.6) are in the form of their lives. Algeria (+2.1) and Senegal (+1.7) are the strongest African sides by friendlies form, with Morocco above both.

Among the host nations, Mexico (+0.3) and Canada (+0.2) are roughly average. Mexico in particular has been steady-not-spectacular — exactly the pattern Aguirre wants. Canada under Jesse Marsch has tightened defensively from a porous 2022 cycle.

The AFC newcomers — Uzbekistan, Jordan, Iraq — are all hovering near a zero xG diff. They look like teams that will get out of bottom but not threaten the third-place qualification slots without a tournament miracle.

What friendlies cannot tell you

Three things to keep in mind when reading any of this:

1. Opponent quality varies wildly. A friendly against Andorra is not the same data point as a friendly against the Netherlands. The xG-diff numbers above are unadjusted; treat top teams' giant differentials with mild caution and bottom teams' small differentials with mild charity.
2. Heat and altitude. None of this preparation simulates Mexico City's altitude (2,240 m) or Monterrey/Houston's 35°C and humidity. Teams that look fluid in a 22°C European May can stall in the actual tournament environment.
3. The squad in friendlies is not the squad at the World Cup. Many federations test bubble players in May friendlies to inform the final-26 decision. Spain's friendly XI in March, for example, included multiple players who will not make the 26-man cut.

The week of May 25 to June 9 is when we learn things

The friendlies that actually matter start now. Each team has either one or two final tune-ups between 2026-06-01 and 2026-06-09 — the games where the manager is naming something close to the World Cup XI and trying combinations the team will use in the group stage. Those are previewed in our Final Tune-Ups guide.

In the meantime, this table is the snapshot of where teams sit going into that window.

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