News & Stories
News & Stories
Reporting, profiles and explainers from the road to '26.
Tag
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · stage-of-elimination · survival-model
World Cup Reach the Final Stage of Elimination Betting Guide
World cup reach the final stage of elimination betting, modeled round by round: price R32/R16/QF/SF/Final survival and find mispriced reach-final vs win-it-all contracts.
June 7, 202610 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · prop-bets · tournament-markets
World Cup 2026 Prop Bets: Goals, Upsets & Shootout Markets
World cup 2026 prop bets and tournament markets: how total-goals over/unders, will-there-be-a-shootout, biggest-upset and red-card props are priced — and which are soft.
June 7, 202612 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · group-stage · to-advance
World Cup Group Stage Betting: To-Advance Market Edge
World cup group stage betting on to-advance markets: how the 48-team format misprices third-place qualifiers, dead rubbers, and convexity vs the outright.
June 7, 202611 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · the-draw · group-stage
Betting on the Draw in Soccer: The Group-Stage Edge
Betting on the draw soccer markets: why favorite-longshot bias misprices the draw, when biscotto group-stage incentives make it likely, and how to price it fair.
June 7, 202610 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · usmnt · host-nations
USMNT World Cup 2026 Odds: Trading the Hosts' Run
USMNT World Cup 2026 odds for traders: home advantage, the host path, the patriotic-money premium, and whether to be long the structure or fade the outright.
June 7, 20269 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · outright-odds · value-betting
World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: Price vs Fair Value, Every Tier
World Cup 2026 winner odds, devigged to fair value across Kalshi, Polymarket and Pinnacle. Where the outright market is rich, where it's cheap, and how to size it.
June 7, 202611 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · implied-probability · vig · fair-value
World Cup Odds & Implied Probability: Vig and Fair Value
World cup odds and implied probability, explained for traders: convert American, decimal and prediction-market cents into a true probability, then strip the vig to find fair value.
June 7, 20269 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · expected-goals · xg · modeling
Trading on xG: Turning Expected Goals into Match Probabilities
Expected goals xG betting model explained: turn team xG and xGA into a Poisson goal model, derive match and totals probabilities, and beat results-based prices.
June 7, 202610 min read
world-cup-2026 · set-pieces · analysis · free-kicks · players
Set-Piece Specialists: The Free-Kick Takers, Corner Magicians, and Penalty Aces of WC26
25% of goals at Qatar 2022 came from set pieces. We rank the 20 specialists — free-kick artists, corner deliverers, penalty takers — most likely to decide WC26 knockouts.
May 21, 202610 min read
world-cup-2026 · goalkeepers · tactics · analysis · distribution
Sweeper-Keepers and Long Bombs: How GK Distribution Will Decide WC26
From 38-yard punts in 2010 to 28-yard build-up passes in 2026, goalkeeper distribution has been quietly rewritten. We profile the eight WC26 keepers who matter most.
May 21, 20268 min read
world-cup-2026 · tactics · analysis · press-resistance · data
Press Resistance: The 48-Team Tier List That Predicts WC26 Knockouts
PPDA, progressive passes, take-on success under pressure — we've ranked every WC26 nation on the metric that has called eight of the last twelve quarter-finalists.
May 21, 20269 min read
world-cup-2026 · fans · travel · visa · borders · logistics · guide
Fan Mobility at WC26: Border Crossings, Visa Hacks, and the Cross-Border Group-Stage Reality
Three countries, sixteen cities, one tournament. A working guide to ESTAs vs eTAs vs Mexico's FMM, the drive times that actually matter, and what the CBP, CBSA and INM updates mean for travelling supporters at WC26.
May 21, 202612 min read