Topic
monte-carlo
2 stories tagged #monte-carlo.
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · monte-carlo · modeling
Build a World Cup Model: Monte Carlo Fair Value for the Outright
Build a world cup Monte Carlo model: turn team strength ratings into fair outright probabilities, simulate the bracket thousands of times, and price Kalshi vs Polymarket.
June 7, 202611 min read
Featuredworld-cup-2026 · final · penalties · monte-carlo · predictions
Will the Final Go to Penalties? A Data-Driven Forecast
How often do World Cup finals reach penalties? A historical baseline plus an in-browser Monte Carlo model that projects extra-time risk for the 2026 final.
May 20, 202612 min read