Topic
modeling
3 stories tagged #modeling.
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · monte-carlo · modeling
Build a World Cup Model: Monte Carlo Fair Value for the Outright
Build a world cup Monte Carlo model: turn team strength ratings into fair outright probabilities, simulate the bracket thousands of times, and price Kalshi vs Polymarket.
June 7, 202611 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · power-ratings · elo · modeling
Power Ratings 101: Using Elo and SPI to Price World Cup Matches
Soccer power ratings explained: turn an Elo or SPI gap into a match win probability with the logistic formula, adjust for home and neutral, and beat the market.
June 7, 202611 min read
world-cup-2026 · prediction-markets · kalshi · polymarket · expected-goals · xg · modeling
Trading on xG: Turning Expected Goals into Match Probabilities
Expected goals xG betting model explained: turn team xG and xGA into a Poisson goal model, derive match and totals probabilities, and beat results-based prices.
June 7, 202610 min read