Topic
dark-horses
2 stories tagged #dark-horses.
world-cup-2026 · dark-horses · model · betting-markets · elo
The Underdog Index: A Model for Picking the Cinderella of WC26
We built a composite model — betting markets, Elo, friendlies form, and seeding — that retro-predicted Costa Rica 2014, Croatia 2018, and Morocco 2022. Here is what it says about the 2026 dark horses.
May 21, 202611 min read
world-cup-2026 · dark-horses · morocco · croatia · japan · predictions
Dark Horses 2026: Six Teams Who Could Wreck the Bracket
Morocco, Croatia, Japan, Uruguay, Netherlands and Senegal — the six second-tier sides with realistic paths to the semi-finals, ranked by ceiling, floor and bookmaker price.
May 20, 202610 min read